How will battery overproduction and overcapacity affect the energy storage industry?

Photographer: Krisztian Bocsi/Bloomberg Battery overproduction and overcapacity will shape market dynamics of the energy storage sector in 2024, pressuring prices and providing headwinds for stationary energy storage deployments. This report highlights the most noteworthy developments we expect in the energy storage industry this year.

What do we expect in the energy storage industry this year?

This report highlights the most noteworthy developments we expect in the energy storage industry this year. Prices: Both lithium-ion battery pack and energy storage system prices are expected to fall again in 2024.

What is the market situation for energy storage?

The market situation for energy storage is different than for traditional generation. A storage device designed exclusively to provide ancillary services has no energy market based opportunity cost. As a result, if there is enough of this energy storage to completely supply the specific ancillary service needed, the market price collapses to zero.

Is excessive energy storage a problem?

Spyros Foteinis highlights the acknowledged problem that an insufficient capacity to store energy can result in generated renewable energy being wasted (Nature 632, 29; 2024). But the risks for power-system security of the converse problem — excessive energy storage — have been mostly overlooked.

Why is energy storage oversupply a problem?

The expansion is driven mainly by local governments and lacks coordination with new energy stations and the power grid. In some regions, a considerable storage oversupply could lead to conflicts in power-dispatch strategies across timescales and jurisdictions, increasing the risk of system instability and large-scale blackouts.

Is excessive energy storage a threat to China's power system?

But the risks for power-system security of the converse problem — excessive energy storage — have been mostly overlooked. China plans to install up to 180 million kilowatts of pumped-storage hydropower capacity by 2030. This is around 3.5 times the current capacity, and equivalent to 8 power plants the size of China’s Three Gorges Dam.